Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 85.6 ?
Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 85.6 ?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 26,228% implied yield on the Yes side and 10¢ spread suggest severe mispricing or minimal market depth rather than genuine probability assessment. With just 7 days to expiry and the price declining from 20¢ to 16¢ over the past week, this appears to be a thin, inactive market where any trade could significantly move pricing.
Resolution rules
If Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 is above 85.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEIFO-26APR24-T85.6 yes 100