Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 89% probability of GRVT launching a token by end-2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (17.4% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in an 89% probability of GRVT launching a token by end-2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (17.4% for Yes vs. 1137% for No) and zero 24-hour volume suggest thin liquidity and potential mispricing on the No side. The 15¢ spread is notably wide relative to the $3,982 open interest, and the 117% realized volatility combined with a cliff risk index of 8 indicates this market experiences sharp repricing events, likely driven by GRVT announcements or development milestones. With 260 days to expiry and only 0.7 information arrivals per hour, the market appears to be pricing in high confidence but lacks conviction from active traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GRVT officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x62f191178b61750ee6aaaac34f496123cdb9300d3831953d218f14e2d608ac60 yes 100