What is the current probability for "Will Harry Maguire be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 80¢ (80% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 18, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Harry Maguire be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 212.2% and 1910.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Harry Maguire be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Harry Maguire be in the England World Cup final squad?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 80% probability that Will Harry Maguire be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 80¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 201.9% implied yield on the Yes side.

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80¢mid

Bid/Ask 75/85¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 18, 2026·57d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-HMAG

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 201.9% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the 909% risk-adjusted yield suggests significant mispricing or a complete absence of market participants willing to trade. With 60 days until expiry and moderate cliff risk (3/10), this appears to be a dead market where the quoted price reflects no real consensus rather than genuine bearishness on Maguire's World Cup prospects.

Resolution rules

If Harry Maguire is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 212.2%

IY (No) 1910.1%

Adj IY 955%

CRI 3

Overround 23.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	212.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1910.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	955%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	23.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:04 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-HMAG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →