Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry favoring the Yes side, with a 98.8% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 40.4% on No, suggesting significant underpricing of Yotova's chances relative to risk-adjusted returns.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry favoring the Yes side, with a 98.8% implied yield on Yes contracts versus 40.4% on No, suggesting significant underpricing of Yotova's chances relative to risk-adjusted returns. The 231% realized volatility and 2.17 vol ratio indicate substantial price swings despite minimal liquidity ($7 daily volume, $838 open interest), making the 40¢ price potentially unreliable for serious position-taking. With 578 days to expiration and a modest 2-point cliff risk index, there's ample time for information arrival (0.7 events per hour), though the neutral regime and recent 2¢ price appreciation suggest the market hasn't yet incorporated major developments in Bulgarian politics.
Resolution rules
If Iliana Yotova wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBULGARIAPRES-26NOV15-IYOT yes 100