Will Jack Lu attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?
Prediction markets currently give a 53% probability that Will Jack Lu attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)?. This contract trades at 53¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,189.86 open interest, and the 49¢ price represents near-even odds on Jack Lu's attendance at an event just 10 days away.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,189.86 open interest, and the 49¢ price represents near-even odds on Jack Lu's attendance at an event just 10 days away. The astronomical implied yields (5704% for Yes, 2535% for No) reflect the tiny position sizes rather than genuine expected returns, and the recent 8¢ price decline over seven days suggests either deteriorating confidence in attendance or minimal trading activity driving the movement. With resolution imminent and a 5¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliably predictive of the actual outcome.
Resolution rules
If Jack Lu attends Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPCRYPTOCONF-26-JLU yes 100