What is the current probability for "Will Jason Steele be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 18, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jason Steele be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 12097.1% and 33.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jason Steele be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jason Steele be in the England World Cup final squad?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Jason Steele be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 11,587.5% implied yield on the Yes side.

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9¢mid

Bid/Ask 5/13¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 18, 2026·57d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-JSTE

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 11,587.5% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the cliff risk index of 19 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or late-breaking information. With 60 days to expiry and the 2026 World Cup squad selection likely occurring closer to the tournament, this appears to be a dead market that may not attract meaningful liquidity before resolution.

Resolution rules

If Jason Steele is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12097.1%

IY (No) 33.5%

Adj IY 6049%

CRI 19

Overround 23.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12097.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6049%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	23.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:08 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-JSTE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →