Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Will Jeanne Shaheen vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 31¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $887 in open interest, making the 328% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading—such high yields typically reflect thin markets rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities.

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31¢
Bid/Ask 30/36¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $887·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining
KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-JSHA
7-day price4 snapshots · 3 regime
38¢30¢ current
Apr 1130¢Apr 15

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $887 in open interest, making the 328% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading—such high yields typically reflect thin markets rather than genuine arbitrage opportunities. The sharp 8-cent price decline over seven days (38¢ to 30¢) suggests shifting sentiment toward a No resolution, though the 6-cent spread and neutral regime score indicate no clear directional conviction. With 260 days to expiration and a low cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded contract, warranting caution before treating the current pricing as reliable.

Resolution rules

If Jeanne Shaheen votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 334.3%
IY (No) 61.4%
Adj IY 167%
CRI 2
Overround 8.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)334.3%
IY (No)61.4%
Adj IY167%
CRI2
Overround8.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:17:06 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-JSHA yes 100

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