Will Joe Walsh be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in South Carolina?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Joe Walsh be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in South Carolina?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This is an extremely illiquid micro-market with only $2 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The massive 4367% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine conviction, and the 24 cliff risk index suggests elevated uncertainty around resolution mechanics. With 201 days to expiry, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to be actionable for serious traders.
Resolution rules
If Joe Walsh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate South Carolina Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATESCD-26-JWAL yes 100