Will Joe Wilson be the Republican nominee for SC-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Joe Wilson be the Republican nominee for SC-02?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The astronomical 655.4% implied yield on the "No" side and 328% risk-adjusted yield suggest severe mispricing or a market that lacks meaningful price discovery. With 563 days to expiration and a high Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a nascent market that hasn't attracted sufficient participation to establish credible odds on Wilson's nomination prospects.
Resolution rules
If Joe Wilson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSCPRIMARY-02R26-JWIL yes 100