Will Jonathan Lockwood be the Republican nominee for OR-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Jonathan Lockwood be the Republican nominee for OR-05?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $7 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $7 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 1548.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic artifact of thin markets where even minimal positions create outsized percentage returns, while the 8¢ spread represents a massive 67% bid-ask gap. With 566 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this contract faces meaningful uncertainty around nomination timing, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate directional pressure.
Resolution rules
If Jonathan Lockwood wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 OR-05 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-05R26-JLOC yes 100