Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. The market is pricing Shapiro at just 6 cents with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite 935 days to expiration, suggesting minimal conviction either direction rather than strong bearish sentiment.
Analysis
The market is pricing Shapiro at just 6 cents with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite 935 days to expiration, suggesting minimal conviction either direction rather than strong bearish sentiment. The extreme 611% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the low price floor rather than genuine opportunity, while the 2¢ spread and modest $691 open interest indicate illiquidity that could make execution difficult. With a Cliff Risk Index of 16 and neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the low price may simply reflect low attention rather than market consensus that Shapiro won't be first among his peer group to declare.
Resolution rules
If Josh Shapiro is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDECLAREPRESFIRSTD-28NOV07-JSHA yes 100