Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 247 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3545.0% and 6.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3545.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1773%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions