What is the current probability for "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 31, 2026. 95 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 89.8% and 1632.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing July 31, 2026. Meta's headcount market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 29 cents over seven days to 62¢, suggesting growing trader confidence the company will exceed 77,000 employees by Q1 2026—a threshold that would represent minimal net hiring from current levels.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 81/82¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $5,115.27·OI $64,554.37·Closes Jul 31, 2026·95d remaining

KXMETAHEADCOUNT-26JUL-77000

7-day price321 snapshots · 92 regime

82¢81¢ current

Apr 820¢Apr 27

Analysis

7d ago

Meta's headcount market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 29 cents over seven days to 62¢, suggesting growing trader confidence the company will exceed 77,000 employees by Q1 2026—a threshold that would represent minimal net hiring from current levels. The asymmetric yield profile (227% for Yes vs. 556% for No) combined with relatively thin liquidity ($60.6K open interest, $278.5 daily volume) indicates this is a niche market where the No side offers outsized returns, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias in broader market conditions. With 103 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears efficiently priced but vulnerable to sharp moves if Meta releases workforce guidance or restructuring announcements.

Resolution rules

If Meta Platforms, Inc. reports above 77000 Headcount in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 89.8%

IY (No) 1632.5%

Adj IY 806%

CRI 4

Overround 2.8%

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	89.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1632.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	806%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Computed

4/27/2026, 6:30:13 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 6:23:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMETAHEADCOUNT-26JUL-77000 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →