Will Mike Rogers be the Republican nominee for AL-03?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Mike Rogers be the Republican nominee for AL-03?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 95¢ price potentially unreliable despite the seemingly decisive probability.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 95¢ price potentially unreliable despite the seemingly decisive probability. The massive 1226% implied yield on the "No" side and 613% risk-adjusted yield suggest the market is severely mispriced or reflects minimal real conviction, as rational traders would aggressively arbitrage such disparities if liquidity existed. With 566 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, the stagnant price action and microscopic spread warrant caution—this appears to be a ghost market with insufficient participation to trust the quoted probability.
Resolution rules
If Mike Rogers wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 AL-03 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXALPRIMARY-03R26-MROG yes 100