Will Mike Simpson be the Republican nominee for ID-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Mike Simpson be the Republican nominee for ID-02?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing Simpson as an overwhelming favorite at 99¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($997 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the extreme probability.
Analysis
This market is pricing Simpson as an overwhelming favorite at 99¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin liquidity ($997 open interest), suggesting limited conviction despite the extreme probability. The 8¢ spread and asymmetric implied yields (6.4% vs 652.5%) indicate the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk, though the high Cliff Risk Index of 10 warns of potential sharp repricing if unexpected challengers emerge. With 566 days until the 2027 close and no recent price movement from 91¢, this appears to be a stale market awaiting either Simpson's formal announcement or credible primary opposition.
Resolution rules
If Mike Simpson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 ID-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIDPRIMARY-02R26-MSIM yes 100