What is the current probability for "Will Nico O'Reilly be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 87¢ (87% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 18, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nico O'Reilly be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 139.8% and 2900.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nico O'Reilly be in the England World Cup final squad?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nico O'Reilly be in the England World Cup final squad?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Nico O'Reilly be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This market shows zero trading activity with no open interest or volume, suggesting minimal market confidence in the contract's viability rather than genuine belief in O'Reilly's exclusion.

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87¢mid

Bid/Ask 82/92¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 18, 2026·57d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-NORE

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows zero trading activity with no open interest or volume, suggesting minimal market confidence in the contract's viability rather than genuine belief in O'Reilly's exclusion. The 0¢ price and extreme 2759.6% implied yield on the "No" side indicate the market is essentially illiquid and non-functional, with the 10¢ spread reflecting the wide bid-ask gap typical of dead markets. With 60 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract may resolve before meaningful price discovery occurs, making it unsuitable for serious prediction or hedging.

Resolution rules

If Nico O'Reilly is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 139.8%

IY (No) 2900.5%

Adj IY 1450%

CRI 5

Overround 23.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	139.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2900.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1450%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	23.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:17 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-NORE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →