Will Nikolai Denkov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Nikolai Denkov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2027. The market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $545 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
The market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $545 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 269.4% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine conviction, while the 6¢ spread is substantial relative to the contract value. With 578 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 4, this market lacks the depth needed for confident analysis of Denkov's actual electoral prospects.
Resolution rules
If Nikolai Denkov wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBULGARIAPRES-26NOV15-NDEN yes 100