Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $128.789 in open interest, paired with an unusually wide 70¢ spread that suggests significant uncertainty among remaining holders.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $128.789 in open interest, paired with an unusually wide 70¢ spread that suggests significant uncertainty among remaining holders. The 48¢ price implies a modest 48% probability, yet the implied yield of 63.3% for "Yes" positions appears attractive relative to the neutral regime and modest 2% price appreciation over seven days, indicating potential underpricing or high risk premium for tail event uncertainty. The exceptionally high realized volatility of 1002% and vol ratio of 13.03 suggest this market has experienced dramatic historical swings, making the current pricing potentially unstable given the extended 625-day timeframe to resolution and sparse information arrival rate of 2.5 events per hour.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcd7f93a5e2d0919298caceeb694b7541cb04ab3891698987c8f8686eaa30b01e yes 100