Will Paris be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Paris be Relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $430 open interest, making the 33¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 32¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $430 open interest, making the 33¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 32¢ spread. The astronomical 1607.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the genuine difficulty of Paris Saint-Germain being relegated, though the sharp 32¢ price jump over seven days indicates recent volatility in a thin market. With just 46 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, traders should be cautious about entry, as the lack of liquidity could make exits difficult and the price may not reflect true market consensus.
Also on polymarket at 19¢(Δ +14¢)
Resolution rules
If Paris is relegated from Ligue 1 in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLIGUE1RELEGATION-26-PAR yes 100