Will Patty Snow be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Patty Snow be the Democratic nominee for OR-02?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $668 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around Patty Snow's 2% nomination odds.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 5¢ spread and modest $668 open interest, suggesting minimal trader conviction around Patty Snow's 2% nomination odds. The astronomical 2086% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny contract price rather than genuine expected returns, while the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant resolution uncertainty with over 566 days until the November 2027 close. Price has remained flat at 3¢ over the past week, suggesting the market may be stale or that traders view Snow as a long-shot candidate with little near-term catalyst.
Resolution rules
If Patty Snow wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 OR-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXORPRIMARY-02D26-PSNO yes 100