Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 23% probability reflects significant skepticism about Phantom launching a governance token within 26 months, though the 471.9% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests potential underpricing given Phantom's market position and the extended timeframe.
Analysis
The 23% probability reflects significant skepticism about Phantom launching a governance token within 26 months, though the 471.9% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests potential underpricing given Phantom's market position and the extended timeframe. Volume is notably thin at $100 in 24 hours with a $3.7M open interest, indicating limited liquidity despite the wide 4¢ spread, and the recent 2¢ price decline over seven days suggests modest selling pressure. The neutral regime and moderate cliff risk (3/10) indicate no imminent catalysts, though the token launch remains a plausible outcome given Phantom's competitive positioning against other wallet platforms.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Phantom officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Phantom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0x82f89562b5f27b616b3154db50e56b81e949ead512ce2929607dfe7a7d833638 yes 100