Will Reddit Inc. report Above 128 million daily active uniques in Q1 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Reddit Inc. report Above 128 million daily active uniques in Q1 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2026. The market is pricing in a near coin-flip outcome at 49¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($38.43 open interest and just $35.46 in 24-hour volume), creating a wide 8¢ spread that suggests significant uncertainty around Reddit's Q1 2026 DAU performance relative to the 128 million threshold.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a near coin-flip outcome at 49¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($38.43 open interest and just $35.46 in 24-hour volume), creating a wide 8¢ spread that suggests significant uncertainty around Reddit's Q1 2026 DAU performance relative to the 128 million threshold. The extraordinarily high implied yields (1285.5% for Yes, 620.8% for No) reflect the illiquid nature of this binary bet rather than genuine market conviction, and with only 41 days until expiration, any new earnings guidance or user growth data could trigger sharp repricing. The stable 7-day price action (40¢ to 41¢) and neutral regime score indicate the market hasn't yet digested a clear directional catalyst, leaving this outcome genuinely uncertain.
Resolution rules
If Reddit Inc. reports Above 128000000 daily active uniques in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRDDT-26APRDAU-128000000 yes 100