Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing August 31, 2029. Restore Britain's 10¢ price reflects minimal market conviction despite a substantial 1,233-day runway, with the extreme 393.4% implied yield on Yes positions suggesting the market prices in near-zero probability of the upstart party winning outright.
Analysis
Restore Britain's 10¢ price reflects minimal market conviction despite a substantial 1,233-day runway, with the extreme 393.4% implied yield on Yes positions suggesting the market prices in near-zero probability of the upstart party winning outright. The $46K open interest contrasts sharply with just $6 in daily volume and a wide 6¢ spread, indicating illiquid positioning that could amplify price swings if new capital enters. The modest 6¢-to-7¢ weekly climb and moderate 13 cliff risk score suggest this is a speculative long-shot bet rather than a market experiencing meaningful momentum shifts.
Resolution rules
If the Restore Britain party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUKPARTY-29-REST yes 100