Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Jersey?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Will Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for the Senate in New Jersey?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. Tabor's nomination odds have tightened 3 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting modest recent confidence gains, though the 112.9% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market still views him as a significant underdog.
Analysis
Tabor's nomination odds have tightened 3 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting modest recent confidence gains, though the 112.9% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market still views him as a significant underdog. The $680 open interest and $212 daily volume reflect thin liquidity typical of niche political markets, creating potential for slippage on larger positions. With 412 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears fairly priced but vulnerable to sharp repricing if Tabor gains visibility or if the Republican primary field consolidates.
Also on polymarket at 43¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If Richard Tabor wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Jersey Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATENJR-26-RTAB yes 100