Will Soda Pop be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Soda Pop be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the c.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The implied yield of 2,685.7% on the Yes side is extraordinarily high, suggesting either severe mispricing or that the $1 position represents a speculative bet rather than genuine market consensus. With 258 days until expiry and a narrow 5¢ spread, this contract would require "Soda Pop" to achieve a highly specific ranking outcome (exactly #3, not #1, #2, or #4-10) among all songs streamed in the US during 2026, making the actual probability likely lower than even the 5% implied price suggests.
Resolution rules
If Soda Pop is the #3 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGTHIRDUSA-26-SOD yes 100