Will SOL trimmed mean be above $95.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will SOL trimmed mean be above $95.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market is pricing in a 54% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $95 by end of April 2026, implying roughly a 75% move from current levels, yet the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3689% and annualized implied yield of 2807% suggest extreme uncertainty or potential mispricing given the 14-day timeframe.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 54% probability that SOL's trimmed mean will touch $95 by end of April 2026, implying roughly a 75% move from current levels, yet the extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3689% and annualized implied yield of 2807% suggest extreme uncertainty or potential mispricing given the 14-day timeframe. The modest $1,577.90 daily volume and $8,903.62 open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, while the recent 5-cent rally (40¢ to 45¢ over 7 days) and high information arrival rate of 5.1/hour signal active repricing as new data emerges. The cliff risk index of 1 and tight 2¢ spread are relatively benign, but this market warrants caution due to its illiquidity and the outsized yield metrics relative to the short resolution window.
Resolution rules
If the price of SOL after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $95.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26APR30-9500 yes 100