Will Solventum Corporation be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Solventum Corporation be removed from the S&P 500 in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing July 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $611.49 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $611.49 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 6¢ spread. The astronomical 15,611% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine market conviction—S&P 500 removals are genuinely rare events, making the 10% probability reasonable for a three-month window. The recent price movement from 1¢ to 3¢ suggests minimal trading activity rather than meaningful directional conviction, and with 76 days to expiry, this market lacks sufficient liquidity for confident analysis.
Resolution rules
If Solventum Corporation is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXSP500REMOVEQ-26JUL01-SOLV yes 100