Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $184k open interest, and the 16¢ spread represents a massive 178% bid-ask gap that distorts the 9¢ price. The implied yield of 25,012% is nonsensical given SPY's current price around $580 and only 15 days to expiry—a $600 low would require a roughly 3.4% intraday dip in April 2026, which the 3,902% realized volatility metric suggests is being wildly overestimated by the model. With zero recent trading activity and a Cliff Risk Index of 10 (maximum), this market appears abandoned and should be treated as unreliable for actual probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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