Will S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit __ in April?
Leader sits at 11% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
7,600 to 7,799.99
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
6,800 to 6,999.99
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the S&P 500 be between
Analysis
This prediction assesses the probability that SPY will fall to $640 or below during April 2026. The 28% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement between venues: Kalshi's 9% suggests skepticism of a significant decline, while Polymarket's 30% indicates more substantial downside risk is priced in. The gap likely reflects different interpretations of current market momentum, economic resilience, and tail-risk assessment. The key driver would be unforeseen economic contraction, policy shock, or earnings deterioration severe enough to trigger a multi-month decline of roughly 15% from current levels. Resolution depends on actual SPY trading data in April 2026, making near-term economic data releases and corporate earnings reports through Q1 2026 critical for updating this view.
- ›Current SPY price relative to $640 target and historical volatility patterns will determine probability plausibility
- ›Q1 2026 corporate earnings results and forward guidance will signal economic health and earnings trajectory
- ›Federal Reserve policy decisions and inflation data between now and April 2026 will influence equity risk appetite
- ›The 21 percentage point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests liquidity differences and potentially distinct trader risk preferences across venues
- ›Historical frequency of 15%+ equity drawdowns in single-month periods provides a baseline reference for assessing the 28% probability
What moved the line
- Jun 217,600 to 7,799.99↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.