Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (HIGH) $720 in April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 59¢ spread relative to the 30¢ price, suggesting the quoted probability is unreliable. The 5,772% implied yield on the "Yes" side is nonsensical given SPY's current price (~$590) would need to surge nearly 22% in just 15 days to hit $720, a move with realized volatility of 5,394% indicating the market is pricing in tail-risk scenarios rather than realistic probabilities. The sharp 7-day price decline from 55¢ to 30¢ combined with near-zero open interest ($11.054) suggests this is a dead market where any trade could dramatically move the price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during April 2026, any 1-minute candle for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) "High" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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