Will Teresa Benitez-Thompson be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Teresa Benitez-Thompson be the Democratic nominee for NV-02?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 158% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the minimal $0.01 spread on a contract worth up to $1, suggesting this is a thin, potentially mispriced market rather than a genuine consensus that Benitez-Thompson has zero chance. With 566 days until expiration and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's ample time for meaningful price discovery, but traders should expect wide spreads and execution challenges given the current desert of liquidity.
Resolution rules
If Teresa Benitez-Thompson wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNVPRIMARY-02D26-TBEN yes 100