What is the current probability for "Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on August 21, 2026. 117 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1644.0% and 59.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 460000 total production in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The market is pricing Tesla's Q2 2026 production exceeding 460,000 units at just 20%, but the extreme 1,083% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal $675 daily volume and a wide 9¢ spread suggests thin liquidity is inflating the payout odds rather than reflecting genuine conviction.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 16/18¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $3,674.28·Closes Aug 21, 2026·117d remaining

KXTSLA-26JULPROD-460000.0

7-day price86 snapshots · 30 regime

36¢16¢ current

Apr 144¢Apr 27

Analysis

10d ago

The market is pricing Tesla's Q2 2026 production exceeding 460,000 units at just 20%, but the extreme 1,083% implied yield on the Yes side combined with minimal $675 daily volume and a wide 9¢ spread suggests thin liquidity is inflating the payout odds rather than reflecting genuine conviction. The 7-day price surge from 5¢ to 21¢ and exceptionally high 1,357% realized volatility indicate recent information arrival (0.4/h) is driving speculative positioning, though with 127 days to expiry there's substantial time for Tesla's actual production guidance and quarterly updates to reshape market expectations.

Resolution rules

If Tesla Inc. reports above 460000 total production in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1644.0%

IY (No) 59.6%

Adj IY 1439%

CRI 5

RV 1128%

VR 1.47

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1644.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	59.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1439%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1128%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Computed

4/27/2026, 6:35:03 AM

Observability highEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 6:38:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTSLA-26JULPROD-460000.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →