Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 3.8%?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 be above 3.8%?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 14, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 12¢ despite an astronomical 11,814% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity collapse—the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $292 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes contract trading at just 12¢ despite an astronomical 11,814% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity collapse—the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $292 open interest indicate virtually no trading activity. The price has crashed 62% over seven days (from 26¢ to 10¢) while maintaining a tight 1¢ spread, and with only 28 days to expiry, the 9/10 cliff risk score warns of potential resolution uncertainty or data availability issues. Given Argentina's recent inflation volatility and the 3.8% threshold being relatively modest by local standards, the extreme yield appears disconnected from fundamental probability, likely reflecting illiquidity and low confidence in market viability rather than genuine pricing.
Resolution rules
If the Argentina inflation rate MoM for April 2026 is above 3.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARMOMINF-26MAY14-T3.8 yes 100