Will the Bank of Korea Hike more than 25bps at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Bank of Korea Hike more than 25bps at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 28, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (5%) for a BoK hike exceeding 25bps in May 2026, yet the Yes contract shows an astronomical implied yield of 16,930% if it resolves affirmatively.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely low probability (5%) for a BoK hike exceeding 25bps in May 2026, yet the Yes contract shows an astronomical implied yield of 16,930% if it resolves affirmatively. The zero 24-hour volume combined with minimal open interest of $283.29 and a wide 6¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. With 41 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, traders should be cautious—the extreme yield likely reflects the illiquid market structure rather than genuine conviction about BoK policy.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Korea takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONKOREA-26MAY27-H25P yes 100