Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will the Bank of Mexico Hike 25bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $254 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $254 open interest, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 5¢ spread. The astronomical 23,412.9% implied yield on a Yes resolution suggests the market is pricing in an exceptionally low probability of a 25bps hike, though with only 21 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the thin liquidity makes this vulnerable to sharp repricing as the May meeting approaches. The neutral regime score and minimal trading activity indicate this contract lacks sufficient market participation to establish a credible consensus forecast.
Resolution rules
If the Bank of Mexico takes the action of Hike 25bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONMEXICO-26MAY07-H25P yes 100