Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 go.... This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is essentially dead with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and extreme 1421.6% implied yield on the Yes side meaningless—the market lacks sufficient liquidity to trade meaningfully.
Analysis
This market is essentially dead with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and extreme 1421.6% implied yield on the Yes side meaningless—the market lacks sufficient liquidity to trade meaningfully. The 4¢ spread and near-zero pricing suggest virtually no traders believe a 25-25 gubernatorial split is plausible after 2026, which aligns with historical precedent showing such perfect parity is extraordinarily rare. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a low-conviction novelty market that may never attract sufficient participation to become tradeable.
Resolution rules
If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0 yes 100