SimpleFunctions

Difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms

Tie is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.

Price history

14¢ current

+6¢
10¢
Sep 4, 2026Sep 18, 2026

Contract brief

If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Tie

Rank

#3 of 3

Leader

Democratic Party 64¢

Range

11¢-64¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0

Sep 22, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Implied probability

14¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 22, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 26m ago

Bid

7¢

Ask

12¢

Spread

5¢

Reported volume

$5K

Family rank

#3 of 3

3 outcomes · Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 12¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
7¢142
6¢1.0K
5¢1.0K
5¢5.0K
5¢1
AskSize
12¢1.1K
14¢1.0K
17¢1.0K
27¢1
42¢7

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0

SF Signal
SF Index
1460.86
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$3K

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Democratic Party 64¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2921.7%

IY (No)

44.6%

Adj IY

1461%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

2921.7%
44.6%
Adj IY
1461%
8
Overround
-0.1%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.