Difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be exactly 0 governors after the 2026 midterms
Tie is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.
Price history
14¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tie
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
Democratic Party 64¢
Range
11¢-64¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0
Sep 22, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If neither party holds more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGOVWINS-27JAN01-E0
Event family
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Democratic Party 64¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.