Will the heating oil close price be above 2.749 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 2.749 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 32¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market consensus but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 32¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect true market consensus but rather a stale quote. The implied yield figures are nonsensical (13,828% on the No side), indicating the pricing model has broken down due to insufficient trading activity. With only 5 days to expiration and heating oil's realized volatility at 1,420%, traders should be cautious about relying on this venue's pricing and consider whether the underlying asset could realistically reach 2.749 USD/Gal by resolution.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 2.749 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T2.749 yes 100