Will the heating oil close price be above 2.799 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 2.799 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 38¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 38¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The astronomical implied yields (10,633% on the No side) are artifacts of the near-zero Yes price and should be disregarded given the lack of trading activity. With only 5 days to expiration and realized volatility at 1,234%, this market is too thin and volatile to trade meaningfully—the recent 33¢ price decline over 7 days combined with zero liquidity indicates this contract has effectively abandoned.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 2.799 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T2.799 yes 100