Will the heating oil close price be above 3.399 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.399 USD/Gal on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme annualized yields (8876% for Yes, 5479% for No) driven by its imminent 5-day expiry, with the 65¢ price implying a 65% probability that heating oil closes above $3.399/gal on April 24, 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme annualized yields (8876% for Yes, 5479% for No) driven by its imminent 5-day expiry, with the 65¢ price implying a 65% probability that heating oil closes above $3.399/gal on April 24, 2026. The wide 21¢ spread and minimal $1.36 daily volume suggest severe liquidity constraints, making this a thin market vulnerable to slippage. The realized volatility of 1289% and recent 5¢ price movement (39¢ to 44¢ over 7 days) indicate high uncertainty, though the neutral regime and steady 2.6 info arrivals per hour suggest no imminent catalysts are driving directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 24, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is above 3.399 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILW-26APR2417-T3.399 yes 100