What is the current probability for "Will the heating oil close price be above 3.749 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

Will the heating oil close price be above 3.749 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.749 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme annualized yields (3507% for Yes) despite modest 49¢ pricing, driven by its 14-day expiration window and minimal $35 open interest.

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33¢

Bid/Ask 25/56¢·Spread 31¢·Vol $0·OI $169·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.749

7-day price899 snapshots · 2 regime

78¢25¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme annualized yields (3507% for Yes) despite modest 49¢ pricing, driven by its 14-day expiration window and minimal $35 open interest. The realized volatility of 8572% and sharp 9¢ price decline over seven days suggest high uncertainty around heating oil's April 2026 trajectory, though the neutral regime and 3.5 info arrivals per hour indicate no clear directional consensus. With only $18 in 24-hour volume and a 3¢ spread, this market lacks sufficient liquidity for confident directional positioning.

Resolution rules

If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 3.749 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 12118.2%

IY (No) 1346.5%

Adj IY 12118%

CRI 3

RV 4501%

VR 3.73

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	12118.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1346.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12118%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4501%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.73	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

31¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:29 PM

Observability directEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.749 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →