Will the heating oil close price be above 3.899 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 3.899 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. The heating oil market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 3038% and an extraordinary Yes-side implied yield of 7126%, suggesting either a mispriced tail risk or thin liquidity conditions typical of niche commodity contracts.
Analysis
The heating oil market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 3038% and an extraordinary Yes-side implied yield of 7126%, suggesting either a mispriced tail risk or thin liquidity conditions typical of niche commodity contracts. Price has collapsed 87% over seven days (40¢ to 27¢), indicating a sharp repricing downward in the probability of heating oil exceeding $3.899/gal by April 2026, though the 2¢ spread remains tight relative to the 34¢ mid-price. With only $378 in 24-hour volume and $318.65 open interest against 14 days to expiry, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident directional positioning.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 3.899 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T3.899 yes 100