Will the heating oil close price be above 4.149 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.149 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, minimal $58.82 open interest, and a massive 9¢ spread on a 49¢ contract—suggesting the current price may be largely stale.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume, minimal $58.82 open interest, and a massive 9¢ spread on a 49¢ contract—suggesting the current price may be largely stale. The implied yield of 30,425% on the Yes side is nonsensical and reflects illiquidity pricing rather than genuine market expectations; the realized volatility of 18,954% and cliff risk index of 12 indicate this contract has experienced wild swings disconnected from fundamental heating oil price movements. With 14 days to expiry and the price having collapsed from 22¢ to 8¢ over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction, thinly-traded contract where any actual order flow could dramatically move prices.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.149 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.149 yes 100