Will the heating oil close price be above 4.249 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.249 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This heating oil contract shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $368.69 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This heating oil contract shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $368.69 open interest, making the 21¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 41,449% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 4.82 volatility ratio and 11,107% realized volatility suggests severe mispricing or a liquidity-driven anomaly rather than genuine market conviction that heating oil will exceed $4.249/gal in 14 days. The 7¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract's 21¢ price, and the sharp price decline from 7¢ to 5¢ over seven days indicates weakening conviction, though the neutral regime and modest 1.3 info arrivals per hour suggest no major catalysts are driving directional moves.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.249 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.249 yes 100