Will the heating oil close price be above 4.299 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the heating oil close price be above 4.299 USD/Gal on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme distress signals with only $19 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 10¢ price may not reflect genuine market conviction.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-contract shows extreme distress signals with only $19 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 10¢ price may not reflect genuine market conviction. The astronomical 63,350% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates severe mispricing or a broken market, likely due to the contract's minimal size and the 14-day expiration window creating outsized percentage swings. The 7-day price collapse from 13¢ to 4¢ and realized volatility of 8,451% suggest this contract is essentially illiquid noise rather than a reliable prediction vehicle.
Resolution rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for heating oil on April 30, 2026 at 5 PM EDT is || Above/Below/Between/At least|| 4.299 USD/Gal, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHOILMON-26APR3017-T4.299 yes 100