Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing May 22, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 154% over seven days from 22¢ to 56¢, suggesting a significant shift in expectations around House reconciliation passage.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic upward momentum, surging 154% over seven days from 22¢ to 56¢, suggesting a significant shift in expectations around House reconciliation passage. The 57¢ price implies a 57% probability, but the asymmetric implied yields (806.6% for Yes vs. 1306.5% for No) indicate substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, particularly given the thin liquidity of just $1,584 in open interest and $857 daily volume. With only 36 days until the May 22 close and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this market faces acute expiry pressure that could amplify volatility as the deadline approaches.
Resolution rules
If a reconciliation bill passes the House before May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXRECNCH-26-MAY22 yes 100