Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 511% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 15.9% on No, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 5-10% victory margin or reflects deep uncertainty about whether a runoff occurs at all.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 511% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 15.9% on No, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of a 5-10% victory margin or reflects deep uncertainty about whether a runoff occurs at all. The sharp 7-point price decline over one week combined with modest $62 daily volume and $8.4k open interest indicates thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to informed trading, while the 405-day timeframe provides ample room for repricing as the 2026 race develops. The narrow 1¢ spread and moderate cliff risk score (6/10) suggest the market is reasonably well-formed despite low activity, though the extreme yield skew warrants caution about the underlying assumptions driving this pricing.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff falls between 5% and 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P7 yes 100