Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6200.01 by Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will the minimum SP500 value reach below 6200.01 by Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, dropping from 67¢ to 54¢ before recovering to 65¢, suggesting recent uncertainty about S&P 500 downside risk despite the current 65% probability pricing.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over the past week, dropping from 67¢ to 54¢ before recovering to 65¢, suggesting recent uncertainty about S&P 500 downside risk despite the current 65% probability pricing. The unusually high realized volatility of 218% and elevated vol ratio of 1.94 indicate substantial disagreement among traders, while the 10¢ spread and modest $2,179 daily volume point to relatively thin liquidity for a market with nearly $23k open interest. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral market regime, the asymmetric implied yields (119.8% for Yes vs. 165.1% for No) suggest the No side may be underpriced relative to tail risk, though the 1-hour information arrival rate of 0.7 indicates this is not a high-conviction market.
Resolution rules
If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 6200.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXINXMINY-01JAN2027-6200.01 yes 100