Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the President's approval rating be between 41.1 and 41.3 according to RealClearPolitics?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a staggering 38,688% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow 0.2-percentage-point approval rating band that may be more likely than the market implies.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a staggering 38,688% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 16¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow 0.2-percentage-point approval rating band that may be more likely than the market implies. The sharp five-fold price increase over seven days (3¢ to 16¢) combined with very low 24-hour volume of $1,275.90 and modest open interest of $2,784.47 indicates thin liquidity and potential manipulation, raising questions about whether recent price movement reflects genuine information or illiquidity-driven volatility. With only 5 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,205%, this is an extremely high-risk, high-reward contract where resolution hinges on a precise approval rating band—the cliff risk index of 5 reflects binary outcome sensitivity.
Resolution rules
If the President's approval rating is between 41.1 and 41.3% at 11:00 AM ET on April 24, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAPRPOTUS-26APR24-41.2 yes 100