Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike more than 25bps at the June Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Will the Reserve Bank of Australia Hike more than 25bps at the June Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board m.... This contract trades at 20¢ on Kalshi, closing June 16, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with a 6% probability of an RBA hike exceeding 25bps in June 2026, reflected in a distorted 19,603% implied yield on the Yes side that signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely scenario with a 6% probability of an RBA hike exceeding 25bps in June 2026, reflected in a distorted 19,603% implied yield on the Yes side that signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine conviction. The $300 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, combined with a massive 17¢ spread, indicate this contract is essentially illiquid and potentially mispriced—the extreme yield metrics are artifacts of thin markets rather than actionable signals. With 60 days to expiry and the RBA's recent tightening cycle largely complete, the market's pricing appears reasonable on fundamentals, though the Cliff Risk Index of 32 suggests some tail risk exposure near resolution.
Resolution rules
If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at June Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCBDECISIONAUSTRALIA-26JUN16-H25P yes 100