Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in April?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (97%) that U.S. unemployment will exceed 4.0% in April 2026, yet shows virtually no trading activity with zero 24-hour volume and only $675 open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—52.6% for Yes versus 55,042.5% for No—suggest severe illiquidity on the No side, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate rather than a reflection of thin order books. With 21 days to expiry and a modest 2-cent spread, traders should be cautious about the market's predictive value given the lack of price discovery through active trading.

Resolution rules

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in April 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade